The first cluster of cases of COVID-19 were reported by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission on December 31, 2019, and the first positive case outside of China was confirmed two weeks later in Thailand. The novel coronavirus has since spread worldwide and has caused governments to adopt shutdown policies to mitigate its impact.

Nonetheless, as of June 17, there were more than 8.34 million confirmed cases worldwide. At that point, in excess of 4.36 million people had recovered from COVID-19, while over 448,000 people had died from the virus.

WHO's Mortality Rate

Fatality rates can be difficult to track during an ongoing pandemic. There are three primary metrics that are tracked: case fatality rate, crude mortality rate, and infection fatality rate. However, these are constantly changing and differ based on factors such as location as well as age, gender, and race.

The World Health Organization (WHO) announced on March 3 that the mortality rate for COVID-19 was 3.4 percent. This was an increase over its prior estimate and beyond double the mortality rate of the flu. Scientists originally figured the mortality rate was around 2.3 percent, while WHO noted it can range between 0.7 and 4 percent depending on the quality of health care systems in respective regions. WHO has also stated 95 percent of all COVID-19 deaths have been among people at least 60 years old.

Although little was known about the coronavirus in early March, WHO's executive director of health emergencies program, Dr. Mike Ryan, stressed that measures implemented by governments to mitigate its spread had been having a positive impact: "Here we have a disease for which we have no vaccine, no treatment, we don't fully understand transmission, we don't fully understand case mortality, but what we have been genuinely heartened by is that unlike influenza, where countries have fought back, where they've put in place strong measures, we've remarkably seen that the virus is suppressed."

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, daily deaths worldwide peaked at 10,520 on April 16. That figure had been less than 6,000 since May 8, but had rebounded to reach 6,856 on June 17.

How to Determine Mortality Rate: A Case Study of New York City

Determining the mortality rate for a particular region requires knowledge of actual cases that have been closed, meaning they either have an outcome of recovery or death. This is especially challenging because actual cases are hard to determine given many people are asymptomatic, and many regions are still hampered by a lack of widespread testing. Similarly, the amount of reported deaths is generally lower than the actual amount of deaths. Add to this the fact that different countries and states report COVID-19 cases and deaths differently, and it is easy to see how the true mortality rate for the disease remains elusive. 

In an attempt to come up with an accurate mortality rate for New York City, which has been a hotbed for the virus, Worldometers analyzed data provided by the local and state governments as well as the CDC in mid-May. Using figures collected from an antibody testing study, it estimated a total of 1.7 million of New York City's 8.4 million people had been infected with COVID-19. It also concluded there were around 23,000 COVID-19-related deaths, which was nearly twice the amount confirmed by the local government. Dividing deaths by total cases, it arrived at a 1.4 percent infection fatality rate.

Deaths per Country

The United States leads all countries in total cases and total deaths at 2,225,053 and 119,674, respectively, as of June 17. In early March, the US had an alarmingly high mortality rate of 5.7 percent, which was the highest in the world among countries with a significant amount of confirmed cases. This was attributed to limited testing.

However, as of June 17, the US had administered almost 26 million tests, or 10 million more than any other country. Still, the US ranked below the UK, Russia, Spain, and Belgium in terms of tests per 1 million citizens. At the same time, the US deaths per 1 million citizens was 361, which was lower than the UK, Spain, Italy, France, and Belgium.

Globally, the tiny country of San Marino had the highest mortality rate with 42 deaths out of 696 confirmed cases. The US, along with Italy, the UK, and Sweden, among other countries, ranked among the top 10 in total deaths per 1 million citizens. Unlike many other countries, Sweden didn't implement strict shutdown policies and instead entrusted its citizens to take the appropriate measures to prevent the spread of the virus throughout the country.

Deaths per Age and Other Variables

As mentioned, the majority of those who die from COVID-19 are at least 60 years old. But age isn't the only factor in determining the likelihood of death for individuals who have been infected with the virus. For instance, more men than women are dying from the virus in nearly every country. While it’s not known for sure why this is so, women are believed to be following social distancing guidelines more than men and tend to have stronger immune systems.

Another study, conducted by MIT Sloan School of Management researchers, highlighted a disparity among mortality rates in US counties with higher percentages of African American residents. The researchers concluded that counties with a Black population of at least 85 percent had mortality rates as much as 10 times higher than the national county average of 12 per 100,000 people.